2021 Draft Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
Fruity29
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Fruity29 » Tue Mar 23, 2021 1:06 am

Tim wrote:
Fruity1010 wrote:Remember this name....Devin Futrell. LHP 2021 Was 90-93 in his 1st outing of the year. Huge upside with a 4 pitch mix

Fruity...Futrell...Fruity...Futrell...

Hi Devin! Or is it Devin's dad? Brother?

Hi Tim....
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby OleMissCub » Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:42 am

Fruity29 wrote:I see a common theme here in the thread.....

Leiter
Lawler
Rocker
Futrell
Thomas





#Vandy Boys!!!


#unlimitedscholarships
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby OleMissCub » Sat Mar 27, 2021 2:37 am

Leiter just threw 7 no hit innings and was pulled because of his pitch count.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Mar 27, 2021 3:52 am

Christian MacLeod gave up 4 HRs tonight and Hajjar's starting to come around:



https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... -michigan/

Estimating that his curveball sits around 78 or 79 mph, with his slider coming in anywhere from 80 to 83, the enhanced repertoire has already paid dividends early for Hajjar, with more options and an increased level of confidence in each of them.


I like SPs with multiple spins and offspeeds, so there's that. Maybe just as nice is the 23% K-BB this year and ~30% K rate in his 43.2 NCAA IP

----

Cusick K'd 12, walked 5 in 5:



The guy starting against him, Parker Messick, is yet another drafting NCAA lefty this year. He's struck out 70 in 40 innings at that level, walked just 13

----


This is a pretty tooled up offensive player in the HS class, showed power/speed last summer and plenty of bat speed...6'3" LHH and P:

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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Mar 28, 2021 7:34 pm

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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Mar 29, 2021 4:29 pm

BA mock:

1. Lawler
2. Rocker
3. Leiter
4. Mayer
5. de Castillo

Guys who have drawn interest from posters in here: Wood went 15, Watson 17, Fabian 22 (what a fall), Ford 25, Hurd 27, Petty 28.

21 Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East HS, East Amherst, N.Y.

BA pick: There are a significant number of toolsy preps on the board and I’ll take one of them here for the Cubs in Mack. Sure, Mack is a high school catcher and that demographic is among the riskiest you can pick from, but he also has the sort of bat that can profile at another position, which lessens the risk in my mind. Putting him with a team like the Cubs gives me some confidence, but the Northeast high school players could be difficult to place for a while longer.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:28 pm

^^ Pass, but I do agree they're going HS player one more time in the first





The way their fastballs play is really most of the difference in between Leiter and Rocker for me so this is good stuff. I'm a big fan of Rocker's new delivery too, third year in a row he's made changes that look good:



I'm seeing some Scherzer influence :dontknow:
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby OleMissCub » Tue Mar 30, 2021 1:33 pm

Lawler better be the second coming of A-Rod because if I’m a GM I’ll be damned if I’m taking a high schooler over Leiter or Rocker. Those two guys could be getting major leaguers out right now. Leiter has only given up 7 hits in 30 innings!
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Mar 30, 2021 5:26 pm

OleMissCub wrote:Lawler better be the second coming of A-Rod because if I’m a GM I’ll be damned if I’m taking a high schooler over Leiter or Rocker. Those two guys could be getting major leaguers out right now. Leiter has only given up 7 hits in 30 innings!


Lawler isn't the second coming of A-Rod but you're not accounting for how risky pitcher's health is.

I'd probably still take one of the pitchers but it's not just about what you get now - you have to think about what you can get over their first 6 years in the big leagues.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby OleMissCub » Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:43 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:Lawler better be the second coming of A-Rod because if I’m a GM I’ll be damned if I’m taking a high schooler over Leiter or Rocker. Those two guys could be getting major leaguers out right now. Leiter has only given up 7 hits in 30 innings!


Lawler isn't the second coming of A-Rod but you're not accounting for how risky pitcher's health is.

I'd probably still take one of the pitchers but it's not just about what you get now - you have to think about what you can get over their first 6 years in the big leagues.


Yep, I understand. Pros and cons each way. I think both Rocker and Leiter are special pitchers. It’s a coin flip but I’d probably go with Leiter if I had to choose. His mechanics look so fluid. He’s probably a lower injury risk than Rocker. His 120th pitch in his no hitter was like 97 or something crazy like that.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Mar 31, 2021 5:39 am

This might be a hot take right now, but if I were making the #1 pick in this draft maybe I go with Brady House? There's parallels to Carlos Correa in 2012 with the size, age, and position combo, but I feel House is a more decorated amateur and less reliant on staying at SS to be a star player offensively. He's pretty slow, which I think is worth mentioning since it's likely what knocks him down, but I'm starting to lean towards being underrated?

Some unnecessary hot takes on the increasingly hyped HS SS prospect class:

- For all the hype, I don't think anyone is a better pure SS prospect than either Howard or Witt from the past two drafts. The players most likely to stick at SS might not hit, maybe even aren't that likely to stay at SS, and the ones that can hit might not stay at SS. The most balanced this year is probably Alex Mooney, and he isn't Howard or Witt

- One player I have ignored completely but probably shouldn't have is Edwin Arroyo. I might even argue he's one of the more serious options for 21 that has not been mentioned. He's one of the youngest hitters in the draft, plays good defense currently at SS, switch hits, did all the showcase drills and tested btw the 90-99th percentile across the board, played in the PGAAC, is far and away the best prospect from his area (Puerto Rico) and maybe the best prospect from there in some time...:



Similar to Watson, it's not hard to imagine a leadoff hitting 2B here and maybe even there's more on paper to suggest he's the one most likely to do it. His 93 MPH EV is actually higher than Jordan Lawlar's 91 MPH, and he way outperformed him on the bat speed metrics (so did Brady House). Cubs have drafted multiple HSers out of PR recently and all have been position players (Vazquez, Velazquez, and Pagan). He's playing his senior season in Florida, which should get him more looks and against top competition

Arroyo is a serious switch hitter too:





- If I had to rank them for the Cubs right now, maybe I go: Arroyo, Watson, Leto, House, Pacheco, Mayer, Lawlar? Probably not
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Apr 02, 2021 3:45 am

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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Apr 02, 2021 5:15 pm

The Cubs bonus pool for the 2021 draft is $6,779,400, the 7th smallest pool in the draft.

1.21 $3,132,300
2.56 $1,276,400
3.93 $627,900
4.123 $464,500
5.154 $343,400
6.184 $263,700
7.214 $206,500
8.244 $168,500
9.274 $152,300
10.304 $143,900

Team can spend up to $125,000 on picks in the 11th through 20th rounds without it counting towards their bonus allotment. Any bonus above $125,000 comes out of the team's bonus allotment. As of last year, nondrafted free agents are limited to $20,000 bonuses.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Apr 02, 2021 11:00 pm



Nice to see a bounceback

——

Jordan Wicks sat 92-94 early on yesterday, was getting whiffs in the zone with 3 pitches, but also gave up a pair of HRs. He’s given up 7 Hrs in a little over 42 innings this year, had given up 7 in 130+ innings entering the year

——

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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Apr 03, 2021 5:05 am



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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Apr 04, 2021 2:30 pm



I don’t subscribe but think I saw he was mocked 25th to Oakland? I would hope the Cubs at 21 don’t let that happen
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Named After Maddux » Sun Apr 04, 2021 5:41 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:https://twitter.com/BaseballAmerica/status/1376882958691414018?s=20

I don’t subscribe but think I saw he was mocked 25th to Oakland? I would hope the Cubs at 21 don’t let that happen


The mocked Joe Mack to the Cubs at 21. I prefer Ford to Mack, but both are prep catchers with significant upside. I like Mack a lot as well. He’s got plus power (more pull side) right now and he’s got a strong accurate arm. If we’re being honest, I think BA didn’t want to have the exact same player mocked to the team that far into the draft. This mock was specifically designed to be a bit chaotic by Carlos Collazo. It would be a mix of BA and picks by a scout, but Collazo designed it so the Pirates wouldn’t take Leiter. It was BA who had the Cubs selection. I think they just picked the other first-round worthy HS C.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:10 am

Named After Maddux wrote:The mocked Joe Mack to the Cubs at 21. I prefer Ford to Mack, but both are prep catchers with significant upside. I like Mack a lot as well. He’s got plus power (more pull side) right now and he’s got a strong accurate arm. If we’re being honest, I think BA didn’t want to have the exact same player mocked to the team that far into the draft. This mock was specifically designed to be a bit chaotic by Carlos Collazo. It would be a mix of BA and picks by a scout, but Collazo designed it so the Pirates wouldn’t take Leiter. It was BA who had the Cubs selection. I think they just picked the other first-round worthy HS C.


I took the Mack pick very generally, tying the Cubs to HS bats, have almost no interest in that specific player so early. Mack seems to me like extremely high risk: HS catcher, cold weather (in tandem with limited seasons), LHH with some swing and miss. I know those first two knocks can be applied to Ford and Howard respectively, but both are were stronger on the circuit and obviously Howard comes from a much more successful demo

It's interesting they've tied the Cubs to catchers early...Henry Davis was the pick in BA's first mock. Mostly I don’t think they should take a HS bat outside of the big 3 states (Florida, Texas, California) with maybe Watson (NC) as a wild card since the Cubs have hung around there
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby NOLA » Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:08 pm

LSU is shutting down Jaden Hill’s season. Looks like Tommy John if you believe local reports.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Bertz » Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:23 pm

NOLA wrote:LSU is shutting down Jaden Hill’s season. Looks like Tommy John if you believe local reports.


Already dreading him being one of like 4 aces on the Dodgers in 2024
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:44 pm

NOLA wrote:LSU is shutting down Jaden Hill’s season. Looks like Tommy John if you believe local reports.


Confirmed:



Bertz, I’m with you. I hope the Cubs take him if he makes a Buehler-like fall.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:18 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Bertz, I’m with you. I hope the Cubs take him if he makes a Buehler-like fall.


Was thinking the same thing, makes a hard pick easy

There’s room for Landon Marceaux after the first too

----

Speaking of NC HS bats, this Payton Green guy must be an extremely tough sign that there isn't more:

https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Pla ... ?ID=493923

NCSt's had Turner, Rodon, and Bailey go in the top 10 recently, maybe he’s got that kind of talent
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Bertz » Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:50 pm

Rocker’s dip in velocity — which could easily be temporary — and Jaden Hill‘s partially torn UCL have changed the complexion of the top of the board. Gunnar Hoglund of Ole Miss has emerged as the next best college pitcher, just one strikeout behind Leiter for the Division I lead, followed by Ty Madden of Texas, Ryan Cusick of Wake Forest and Miami of Ohio’s Sam Bachman, who hit 102 mph while building back up from a couple of missed starts, showing the stuff of a top 15 pick. California shortstop Marcelo Mayer joins Jordan Lawlar as the two high school players who are certain to go in the top 10. Boston College centerfielder Sal Frelick and Louisville catcher Henry Davis have impressed scouts this spring with their performances and middle-of-the-field positional value, and likely will be the first two college hitters off the board. As of now, I don’t think there’s a high school pitcher drafted in the top 10, and would peg seven guys as “locks” to go in the first 10 picks, in no particular order: Leiter, Rocker, Davis, Frelick, Lawlar, Mayer and Hoglund.


This is a good state of play from Keith Law's latest article this morning
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:12 pm

Agree with everyone else. Make sure Hill will sign for something reasonable and then take him; TJS or not. That arm talent is something else.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:09 am

https://www.reddit.com/r/MLBDraft/comme ... _national/

Outside of these 3 (Rocker, Leiter, Madden) and Hill, who is now having TJ, is there another pitcher with a similar or close upside as these guys and still have ok floor?

Mississippi righthander Gunnar Hoglund has a pretty great floor/ceiling combination considering his track record of strike throwing paired with his improved pure stuff this spring. He entered the year as the best command arm in the class and back in high school he walked just two batters during his senior season. Both were in his final game, I believe.


Where would Elijah green tank in this class?

Somewhere in the top 10 seems likely. His tools, physicality and in-game production against high-level arms is terrific. I've talked to scouts who prefer him to his teammate James Wood, who we have ranked No. 11, if that helps place him.


How far could Jud Fabian, Adrian Del Castillo, and Matt McLain drop given their performances so far?

Del Castillo seems the least resistant to sliding given the amount of confidence teams have in him being a high-quality hitter. Fabian's strikeout concerns are alarming, but he also has more impactful tools than McLain and is more than a year younger... Those two have been and will continue to be difficult for us to have great feel for.


Do you see any chance Leiter or Rocker could fall to pick 4?

Yep. It would be harder to see them falling out of the top 5/6 picks but certainly see possibilities for one of them making it to No. 4.


Is Robert Moore a top 5 pick next year as things stand now?

Top five pick seems aggressive for Moore at this point unless you mean top five rounds, which he assuredly is.


Get him to the Cubs is all I ask, but yeah first rounder

Speaking of states to draft from:

What GA prep prospects are you most excited about?


Brady House, Bubba Chandler and Harry Ford are the top high school prospects we have in the current draft class so... them? All three could be first round picks. Man, Georgia has really spoiled us with excellent high school prospects year in and year out.

You have to go all the way back to 2006 before you get to a draft class that didn't have a first round prep out of Georgia. That's crazy.

House has massive power potential and a cannon arm, while Chandler and Ford would each have arguments for best athlete in the 2021 class. Ford is perhaps the most unique high school catcher I have covered because of that athleticism (though former Georgia switch-hitting catcher and switch-pitcher Anthony Seigler has a claim for that title as well) and Chandler is a highly-regarded QB, who can throw 40 yards with his off-hand and windmill dunk on the basketball court, in addition to throwing 97, playing shortstop and switch-hitting.

And it doesn't look like it's going to slow down anytime soon. Five of the top 10 HS players we have ranked in the 2022 class at the moment are Georgians and in 2023 it's five of the top 13.


Who’s your favorite position player in pitcher in this year’s draft class?


I really like Lawlar and Del Castillo on the hitting side. For deeper cuts I like South Carolina prep Will Taylor (super athletic) and Wright State's Tyler Black (love his hit tool, and he barreled Kumar week 1).

As for pitchers, I love basically everything about Ty Madden. I think his FB movement plays exceptionally well at the top of the zone and believe he has the slider to pair with it at the bottom. There is no shortage of arms to choose from in this class, but a few deeper names I like include IMG Academy LHP Mason Albright (invisiball), LHP Hagen Smith in Texas, and Fordham lefty Matt Mikulski, who is throwing much harder this year after shortening his arm action.


Been meaning to bunch in Mikulski with the other draftable lefties, this class is loaded with LHP please get a good one or two or three

Do you have any dark horse candidates you think will go in the top three picks? Thanks!


Hmmm.... how far down the board would I have to go to qualify as a true dark horse? At the moment we see the top of the class as Kumar Rocker/Jack Leiter/Jordan Lawlar in some combination, with Marcelo Mayer the next guy up.

Is it cheating to go with Boston College center fielder Sal Frelick? He's ranked inside the top 10 but has a fairly dynamic toolset, has bat-to-ball skills from the left side and play a premium position at a high level. He's in our top 10 so I'll go deeper.

The reports on Florida prep outfielder James Wood haven't been the best in recent days, but he is perhaps one of the bigger pure upside players in the draft given his frame, power potential and athleticism. I know some teams like him as a top-5 talent in the class but that doesn't seem to be the consensus opinion. If one of those teams is at the top and something happens with the top three, perhaps he goes on upside, but this is more me trying to figure out some dark horse candidate than anything substantial.

Miami (Ohio) righthander Sam Bachman has the sort of pure stuff that fits up there like Max Meyer a year ago, but Meyer's delivery and athleticism were well ahead of Bachman's as well, so that would be a surprise.

The trouble with picking a dark horse candidate is that none of them make sense up there based on the information I have right now—which is the point haha.








Kohn reminds me of Moreno from last year but a LH, maybe signable outside the first too
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