2021 Draft Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:26 pm

Prospect Live mocked Harry Ford at 5, Kahlil Watson #2 overall, and Peyton Stovall to the Cubs. Stovall’s a limited defender (2B, COF) but is a LHH that can/should mash. They also mocked Braden Montgomery as the Cubs' 2nd pick, which would be nice and give a shot at a potential switch hitting two way player
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https://www.mlb.com/news/marcelo-mayer- ... t-coverage

I still don’t get what either guy does to keep both House and Watson out of the convo
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:37 am

Jim Callis mock:



21. Cubs: Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork HS (Irmo, S.C.)

The Cubs are considering every demographic -- high school bats (Taylor, Colson Montgomery) and arms (Solometo), college hitters (Florida outfielder Jud Fabian) and pitchers (McGreevy).
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Bertz » Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:47 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Jim Callis mock:



21. Cubs: Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork HS (Irmo, S.C.)

The Cubs are considering every demographic -- high school bats (Taylor, Colson Montgomery) and arms (Solometo), college hitters (Florida outfielder Jud Fabian) and pitchers (McGreevy).


I believe a week or two ago Keith Law very explicitly said that the Cubs like Taylor, so this is starting to sound kind of real.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Tim » Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:00 am

Bertz wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Jim Callis mock:



21. Cubs: Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork HS (Irmo, S.C.)

The Cubs are considering every demographic -- high school bats (Taylor, Colson Montgomery) and arms (Solometo), college hitters (Florida outfielder Jud Fabian) and pitchers (McGreevy).


I believe a week or two ago Keith Law very explicitly said that the Cubs like Taylor, so this is starting to sound kind of real.

Never trust anyone with two first names.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:58 am

Bertz wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Jim Callis mock:



21. Cubs: Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork HS (Irmo, S.C.)

The Cubs are considering every demographic -- high school bats (Taylor, Colson Montgomery) and arms (Solometo), college hitters (Florida outfielder Jud Fabian) and pitchers (McGreevy).


I believe a week or two ago Keith Law very explicitly said that the Cubs like Taylor, so this is starting to sound kind of real.


There's also been enough for me to believe they're very into McGreevy (and Ford, but I'm beginning to think he won't be there at 21).
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jun 11, 2021 6:19 pm

Gavin Williams is making himself some money today.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:49 pm

Williams was damn good today. As exciting as someone like Jack Leiter is, I might prefer someone like Gavin Williams over the long haul. Dunno, he's had a good year. His stuff isn't at the level of Leiter or Rocker, but it's plenty good. Still think he should junk a breaking ball.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Jun 12, 2021 1:47 am

Is Michael McGreevy a 1st round lock?


Eric A Longenhagen: No way, the guy I saw last weekend was not a 1st rounder


How does Jobe compare with recent top HS arms?

Eric A Longenhagen: Deeper repertoire, slightly better present stuff, but with less body projection than Priester, Abel.


-----

Also just because in my made up mock he fell to the Angels at 9:



While that's obviously insane (not falling to 9, being ranked closer to 8th on talent while healthy), he's got one of the handful highest ceilings in this class easy, I do think algorithms will kick him out early for not having elite velocity and being a college RHSP. He's thrown alot of high stress innings already and there's still the rest of this CWS too. While it'd take something big and dumb for him to fall to 21, I do think falling out of the top 5 is pretty easy
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Jun 14, 2021 2:23 pm

They only got to 17 but interesting read:
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Jun 15, 2021 6:53 pm

Some Josh Hartle love, still think he reminds me of Darvish but LH:

https://journalnow.com/sports/high-scho ... 5c0de.html

The scout

“I think it starts with the frame. He’s got good size and arm strength, and we saw velocity today in the low 90s. I thought he pitched very well and threw a ton of strikes and had great command so he was impressive today. We will take into consideration how much he wants to go to school or if he wants to get drafted.” – a 15-year Major League Baseball scout who was granted anonymity


and fluff:

The principal

“He’s just a special kid and with somebody like that who has his talents, he could have a different attitude but he doesn’t have that. He’s appreciative of everything and he’s humble and our teachers notice that about him also. He’s a great student and he’s always on top of that but from a baseball side of it he’s special. I’m a baseball guy, and I don’t think I’ve ever been around someone like him who can do those things on the mound. It’s been a lot of fun to watch, and he’s certainly made our school a better place.” – Reagan principal Brad Royal
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:00 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Some Josh Hartle love, still think he reminds me of Darvish but LH:

https://journalnow.com/sports/high-scho ... 5c0de.html

The scout

“I think it starts with the frame. He’s got good size and arm strength, and we saw velocity today in the low 90s. I thought he pitched very well and threw a ton of strikes and had great command so he was impressive today. We will take into consideration how much he wants to go to school or if he wants to get drafted.” – a 15-year Major League Baseball scout who was granted anonymity


and fluff:

The principal

“He’s just a special kid and with somebody like that who has his talents, he could have a different attitude but he doesn’t have that. He’s appreciative of everything and he’s humble and our teachers notice that about him also. He’s a great student and he’s always on top of that but from a baseball side of it he’s special. I’m a baseball guy, and I don’t think I’ve ever been around someone like him who can do those things on the mound. It’s been a lot of fun to watch, and he’s certainly made our school a better place.” – Reagan principal Brad Royal


I need to look into the prep pitchers a lot more than I have thus far. This regime has avoided prep arms in the 1st round, so I guess it has led to me not paying much attention to the top 50 prep pitcher types this year. The little I just read/watched about Hartle looks solid though.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jun 17, 2021 2:57 pm



21. Cubs: Colson Montgomery, 3B, Southridge HS (Huntingburg, Ind.)
We’ve had McGreevy here a lot, and that could still be a fit, and if they wanted to go high school arm, they could consider Painter or New Jersey flamethrower Chase Petty. A college bat like Trey Sweeney starts coming up around here, but so does Colson Montgomery, who has a lot of helium.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jun 18, 2021 7:35 pm



21. Chicago Cubs
Jud Fabian, CF, Florida

The Cubs seem to be embracing variance more in recent years, and Fabian has that in spades with his massive upside and uneven spring. He may be a tough sign much lower than this, but it seems like someone will meet his price.


I'm just not keen on Fabian and his numerous strikeouts.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Jun 19, 2021 2:25 pm

I’ve flip flopped on him but think I’m actually pro Fabian. He blends alot of what I liked about Howard with the Cubs’ college hitter strategy in the top 10. Like Howard he’s probably the best defensive player among potential first rounders, a true CF with all the tools and skills to be an impact two way player, a nice meaty resume compared to peers. As a college player, he’s made all rounds (800+ PAs) including a very strong showing in the CCBL at 18. For the second year in a row he’s rocking a .300+ IsoSLG in the SEC, he takes walks (15% this year IIRC), and he’s a legit ARL guy having played his college career from 18-20. I’m thinking a team that can develop bats might get a Mike Cameron-esque CFer

Players I really like at 21:

Harry Ford C/CF/2B
Kahlil Watson SS/2B
Josh Hartle LHSP
Edwin Arroyo SS/2B - Possibly-probably
Jordan Wicks LHSP
Jud Fabian CF

I’m not against under slotting a college pitcher like Abbott or Bednar who might move very fast but the non-first college crowd is deeeep

It’s almost twenty years later and a very different game, but the way Jackson Jobe’s slider gets talked about reminds me of breaking ball dominat HSers like Clint Everts and Chris Gruler. I’d rather have potentially elite all around command like Hartle
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Sat Jun 19, 2021 3:41 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/1405913477844189186?s=20

21. Chicago Cubs
Jud Fabian, CF, Florida

The Cubs seem to be embracing variance more in recent years, and Fabian has that in spades with his massive upside and uneven spring. He may be a tough sign much lower than this, but it seems like someone will meet his price.


I'm just not keen on Fabian and his numerous strikeouts.


I'm 100% with you. I would pass on Fabian. I'm actually warming up a bit to Trey Sweeney at 21, depending on who is still on the board.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby OleMissCub » Sat Jun 19, 2021 4:04 pm

Fabian is a great athlete, BUT, he’s not so hot against elite pitching, at least from what I saw of him.

In the series against Ole Miss:
Hoglund faced him twice and K’d him twice
Nikhazy faced him three times and K’d him three times

He did hit 2 homers in a row against Leiter though, but didn’t do anything against Rocker.

Nevertheless, he shouldn’t be a first rounder IMO
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Bertz » Sat Jun 19, 2021 9:12 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/1405913477844189186?s=20

21. Chicago Cubs
Jud Fabian, CF, Florida

The Cubs seem to be embracing variance more in recent years, and Fabian has that in spades with his massive upside and uneven spring. He may be a tough sign much lower than this, but it seems like someone will meet his price.


I'm just not keen on Fabian and his numerous strikeouts.


I don't really think Kiley has much of a read on this team, so I'd imagine this is more speculation than rumor. I actually don't know who does have their finger on the pulse for the team at this point. Callis did for a really long time but I don't know if that's still true here in the Kantrovitz era.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Jun 20, 2021 1:52 am

https://www.mlb.com/news/college-world- ... t-coverage

These guys may end up Cubs relevant outside the first:

No. 5 national seed Arizona (45-16)

Top 250 Prospects: Ryan Holgate, OF (No. 101); Chase Silseth, RHP (No. 154); Branden Boissiere, 1B (No. 157).

Holgate has an intriguing left-handed bat with considerable raw power he’s still learning to tap into, though he has slugged .576 and hit .356 this year and is carrying an eight-game hit streak into Omaha. Boissiere gives the Wildcats another accomplished bat, one who has posted a .374/.456/.512 line this year and went 10-for-15 in their Super Regional win against Ole Miss. Jacob Berry leads the team in homers (17) and RBIs (70) and should be a college bat worth tracking for the 2022 Draft. Silseth has struggled of late, giving up three runs on six hits over 4 2/3 innings against Ole Miss (though he struck out six), but has an intriguing four-pitch mix that can make him formidable when he’s in sync.


A couple L/L 1B/OF bats, Seilseth has 3 pitches and wasn't terrible

No. 7 national seed Mississippi State (45-16)

Top 250 Prospects: Will Bednar, RHP (No. 36); Christian MacLeod, LHP (No. 82); Tanner Allen, OF (No. 138); Eric Cerantola, RHP (No. 248).

The younger brother of Pirates reliever David Bednar, Will could land in the first round thanks to one of the best combinations of stuff (mid-90s fastball, quality slider and curveball) and control in the college ranks. MacLeod is a lefty with a deceptive fastball and plus curveball, while Cerantola has better stuff than either of the Bulldogs' top two starters but rarely pitches because he hasn't harnessed it. A 23-year-old fourth-year junior, Allen is a polished hitter who leads the SEC with a .390 average and has worked hard to improve his speed and athleticism. Right-hander Landon Sims and catcher Logan Tanner both could be first-rounders a year from now.


Cerantola's up there on bad numbers or injuries but great stuff that the Cubs should dig into among college RHPs. Cam Sanders didn't pitch a whole lot in college either IIRC. MacLeod's one of those players I think is a great fit, beats alot of hitters with his four seam up.

Virginia (35-25)

Top 250 Prospects: Andrew Abbott, LHP (No. 62); Zack Gelof, 3B (No. 96); Mike Vasil, RHP (No. 109).

Abbott has convinced many scouts he can start, or at least deserves to be given the chance to, with a move to the rotation after spending most of his Virginia career as a reliever. He has a 152/30 K/BB ratio in 100 2/3 IP. Vasil has struggled of late and didn’t start in Super Regional play, but he did come in to help in relief. Once thought to be a first-round candidate, Gelof started very slowly, but has come on of late, bringing his season line to .298/.380/.472 with nine homers and 11 steals.


5:1 K:/BB from Abbott moving from closer to the rotation. Why not maybe a Ted Lilly-esque LHSP?

North Carolina State (35-18)
Top 250 Prospects: Jose Torres, SS (No. 68); Luca Tresh, C (No. 84); Tyler McDonough, OF (No. 110).

Torres sent the Wolfpack to Omaha with a ninth-inning, Super-Regional-winning homer against No. 1-ranked Arkansas, and though he has deceptive pop, his glove is what could make him a top-50 pick...McDonough is a steadier hitter with solid speed and defensive versatility.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Jun 21, 2021 4:11 pm

The NCAA made more off my mostly accidental click than Bednar made from this start working their likely publicly funded fields:

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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Mon Jun 21, 2021 4:21 pm

Will Bednar with an eye-opening performance last night. 15 Ks in only 6 innings against #2 ranked Texas. Have to think he's in the mix at 21 if they decide to go collegiate arm. Fits their prior philosophy a little bit as well, as I seem to recall reading somewhere that Bednar is a Rapsodo giant.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby Hrubes20 » Mon Jun 21, 2021 4:23 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:The NCAA made more off my mostly accidental click than Bednar made from this start working their likely publicly funded fields:



Had to take a phone call mid-post and you beat me to it. Great outing.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Tue Jun 22, 2021 4:48 am

I wouldn't mind Bednar in the first. Really good season, the slider looks better than I thought, and the fastball plays. I don't think I love the idea of Bednar there for the Cubs (for a college arm, he's still relatively raw) but if he's the best talent on the board, go for it.

Quick note on Abbott - that circle change has really come on strong of late. It's at least an average offering, and in the last outing against Tennessee, it looked better than that with it's movement and velocity. I have to admit, I had my doubts on Abbott as a starter, but with solid velocity for a lefty, a plus breaking ball, and an improving changeup, plus fairly loose mechanics that he seems to repeat well, he definitely should get a long run as a starter in a system.

Going to be interesting to see how Griff McGarry does tonight against Mississippi State. If he continues performing like the last two starts, I could see a team saying, screw it, let's pop him earlier than expected, save a little money, and see if we can fix him enough to get a usable starter out of it. That's elite level stuff, and it's been on enough in the last two outings.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jun 24, 2021 5:41 am

https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/mlb-mock- ... um=twitter

21. Cubs: Jud Fabian, OF, Florida

The Cubs are mulling all four demographics: college position players (Fabian) and pitchers (McGreevy) along with high school bats (Taylor, Colson Montgomery) and arms (Solometo, Painter, Petty).


Eh close enough on Fabian, pass, pass, pass, probably pass, pass, and maybe

This seems like smoke season...I don't buy the Tigers are going pitcher at all let alone HS pitcher, college bats seem undersold, the college bats (McLain, Del Castillo, Cowser, Sweeney) could move up a little, not enough Josh Baez, I don't think both Pacheco and Montgomery go in the first and prefer Pacheco, only one LHP (Wicks) in a draft with some good LHP - like I think Abbott's as good a pick at 21 as Williams/Bednar/McGreevy would be
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jun 24, 2021 3:09 pm

Keith Law: https://theathletic.com/2669873/2021/06 ... -look/?amp

21. Chicago Cubs: Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork (SC)

Nothing new here — which includes nothing new from Taylor, who still hasn’t indicated to scouts whether he plans to play baseball or play football for Dabo Swinney at Clemson. If he’s willing to sign, he could go higher than this, maybe to St. Louis or Philly.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Jun 25, 2021 1:00 am

https://www.mlb.com/news/draft-prospect ... t-coverage

Andrew Abbott, LHP, Virginia (No. 62)

A reliever for most of his career at Virginia, Abbott not only pitched well for the Cavaliers as a starter this year, he convinced a lot of scouts he has the chance to start at the next level. His six innings of shutout ball with 10 K’s in Virginia’s College World Series opener certainly didn’t do anything to curtail his helium.


Took long enough for some first round speculation on Abbott

Cooper Kinney seems interesting outside the first, PG has him listed as a 3B/C too:

Cooper Kinney, 2B, The Baylor School, Chattanooga, Tenn. (No. 90)

Like Kath, Kinney is another high schooler who can really hit. Coming from a strong prep program that has three other legitimate Draft prospects, Kinney has an advanced approach and plenty of bat speed from the left side of the plate, showing a knack for barreling up the baseball with the potential for solid power to come in the future.
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